RISK & PLANNING TOOL
Estimate a one-standard-deviation move from implied volatility and time to expiration.
Update any value to recalculate.
Calculated from the values above.
Expected move is an IV-based statistical estimate: underlying price × IV × √(days ÷ 365). It is not a price target.
Expected move converts implied volatility and time to expiration into an approximate one-standard-deviation range.
Enter the underlying price, annualized implied volatility, and days to the same expiration you are evaluating. Compare the range with strike distances and breakevens, while remembering that a one-standard-deviation estimate is not a probability guarantee.
Expected move equals underlying price × IV × square root of days to expiration ÷ 365.
The range is based on annualized implied volatility and the square root of time. It is a one-standard-deviation planning estimate, not a ceiling, target, or directional call.
A $100 underlying at 30% IV with 30 days gives an approximate $8.60 one-standard-deviation move.
Treat the upper and lower values as a statistical planning range for the selected time period. They can help compare strike distance or break-even distance, but they do not identify a direction.
Do not use an annualized IV with the wrong expiration horizon. A weekly option and a monthly option can have materially different expected ranges even on the same underlying.
It is a statistical estimate, not a forecast or a maximum range.